Historical Kentucky Derby Data Analysis

"The Most Exciting Two Minutes in Sports", and two of the hardest minutes of sports to predict. With 20 horses and just so much uncertainty, the Kentucky Derby winner is anyone's guess. However, with the help of data from jessicachapel.com, looking at data since 1998, we can get a sense of what factors going into the race help and hurt horses overall. (Full Data Found Here)

On "Numbers", you can see how I decided to weigh the criteria from "Descriptions". Most of it makes sense intuitively, such as rewarding 2 points for having a Beyer Speed Figure (BSF) 100 or above (Criteria 8); Most Kentucky Derby winners end up getting a 103-110 BSF in the Derby. I used the difference between the average horse fitting criteria and a Top-3 or winning horse fitting the same criteria to weight these. For example, for Criteria 8 fits only 33.4% of all horses, but 58.3% in the Top 3 (+24.9%) and 65% (+31.6%) of winners, so it's clearly a better thing to have under your arsenal. The scale goes from -3.5 to 10.

"Top 3" shows the data for every horse to have hit the board since 1998. Barbaro (2006), Buddy Gil (2003), Empire Maker (2003), and Victory Gallop (1998) are tied for the top at 9.5, and only Buddy Gil did not finish in the Top 3. The average overall using the formula is 4, however, the average for horses that hit the board is 6. 58.3% of horses to hit the board had a rating of 6+, but only 29.3% of all horses had a rating of 6+. The lowest winner at 0, 50-to-1 longshot Mine That Bird in 2009, benefitted from staying well behind a relatively fast pace of 47.2 seconds through 1/2 mile in extremely muddy conditions.

Looking at 2017, based on the criteria, Irish War Cry was the clear favorite at 9, with the next closest three at 6, including eventual winner, Always Dreaming. In 2016, the three favorites by odds and by the formula hit the Trifecta, with Nyquist (7) edging out Exaggerator (8) and Gun Runner (7.5). In 2015, the top 4 based on the formula hit the superfecta, with future Triple-Crown-Winner American Pharoah (8.5) winning the Kentucky Derby as well.

Other Kentucky Derby winner stats to note:

- 71/72 faced a field size of 10 or more before

- 47/50 won as a 2-year-old

- 67/67 raced 1 1/8 miles or longer before

- 45/47 winning jockeys had prior Derby mounts

- 41/42 had sharp last prep (T-3 or better or at least within 4 lengths)

- 105 horses since 1992 have had their Best Beyer coming in as 94 or worse:

- 2 won, 4 came in 2nd, 4 came in 3rd

- The winner needs to be able to go the distance, Tomlinson rating is something to note

- A longshot winner almost always has a good jockey

- Poor conditions helps longshots, track condition is important (Ex: Mine That Bird in 2009)

- Since 1962, all winners were in the top 4 in their last race

- Since 1882, every winner raced at age 2

- Since 2000, every winner besides Always Dreaming (2017) won at age 2

- Since 1933, every winner had won before

- No horses coming from the race in Dubai have finished In-The-Money

- Since 1970 no winner had the Louisiana Derby as their last prep